Weekly Roundup for June 21-27: Kony breaks silence

The Bad: Eight members of the LRA peace team quit, revealing continued fractures within Kony’sdelegation to the peace process and highlighting the need for direct dialogue betweenKony and mediators.

The Ugly: The Failed States Index ranked all three countries in which LRA rebels are nowactive – the Central African Republic, the DR Congo and Sudan – among the ten mostunstable states in the world.

The Peace Process:

• LRA leader Joseph Kony gave new hope to the peace process, telling Radio France International in an interview, “I am agreeing to continue dialogue until we finish everything and I am not going to go back to war with the Ugandan government." Chief mediator Riek Machar called the reclusive leader’s first public comments since April “a good step forward.”

• The Ugandan government welcomed Kony’s statement, but maintained that the Final Peace Agreement (FPA) agreed to in April is non-negotiable and is only awaiting Kony’s signature.

• Chief mediator Riek Machar wrote to Joseph Kony assuring him that should he sign the Final Peace Agreement (FPA) an African Union observer force would be deployed to ensure that demobilized LRA fighters are protected.

• Eight members of the LRA delegation to the Juba talks quit their posts, citing dissatisfaction with Kony and former head negotiator David Matsanga. In recent weeks Matsanga has claimed that Kony has reauthorized him to be the LRA’s representative in peace talks.

Regional Impacts:

• In his briefing to the UN Security Council last week, UN special envoy Joaquim Chissano warned that countries affected by LRA attacks are open to continued dialogue with the LRA but are growing increasingly impatient with rebel attacks on civilians.

• UN reports released this week confirmed LRA responsibility for recent attacks in the DR Congo and South Sudan and concluded that LRA “renegades” are most likely responsible for looting and abductions this year in the Central African Republic.

• The Failed States Index ranking of LRA-affected countries as some of the most unstable in the world highlights the difficulty of pressuring LRA leader Joseph Kony to sign a final peace deal as long as he is free to roam a vast region ridden with conflict and lawlessness.
  

International Response:

• Though Kony’s interview is a positive sign that a peaceful resolution to the conflict is possible, if the process is to move forward the US and international community must work closely with regional governments and mediators to establish confidence and direct lines of communication with the LRA leader.

• The UN Security Council is expected to issue a Presidential Statement next week in response to last Friday’s briefing by UN envoy Chissano, a move that could provide some direction for the peace process and regional efforts to protect civilians from LRA attacks.